The Asteroid 2024 YR4: Is Gran Telescopio Canarias tracking it up? In recent months, many clients, enthusiasts, and followers of Astrolapalma have asked us if any of the telescopes in La Palma—especially the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC)—are observing a potentially hazardous asteroid. The answer is yes: scientists from the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), together with international collaborators, are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently added object to the European Space Agency’s (ESA) impact risk list. Asteroid 2024 YR4: What Do We Know? Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 28, 2024, by the Pan-STARRS 2 telescope in Hawaii. It is a Near-Earth Object (NEO) belonging to the Aten group, characterized by orbits that cross Earth’s path. Its estimated size ranges between 38 and 85 meters in diameter, depending on its reflectivity (albedo). During the early months of 2025, uncertainty about its orbital path led to its inclusion in ESA’s CLOMON risk list. Why Is This Important? In February 2025, initial observations estimated a 3.1% probability that 2024 YR4 could impact Earth on November 27, 2032. This was the highest probability recorded for an object of this type, triggering international observation protocols. However, thanks to new data gathered by telescopes worldwide—including some from La Palma—this probability has drastically dropped to below 0.004%. New simulations have revealed an unexpected development: the probability of an impact with the Moon is now estimated at 4.3%, based on analyses using data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and the NASA Scout system. While still relatively low, this value is significant enough to justify ongoing monitoring. Monitoring from the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory Since early 2025, the IAC has led an intensive observation program at the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory in La Palma to refine the orbit of 2024 YR4. The
The Asteroid 2024 YR4: Is Gran Telescopio Canarias tracking it up? In recent months, many clients, enthusiasts, and followers of Astrolapalma have asked us if any of the telescopes in La Palma—especially the Gran Telescopio